American University’s distinguished professor of history, Alan Lichtman, shocked the world when he accurately predicted that Donald Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
During a Zoom interview with The National, ProfLichtman held up a note he received from Mr Trump in 2016 shortly after that prediction came to fruition.
“Professor, congrats, good call,” it reads, in large letters written in marker with Mr Trump’s signature.
This time around, using his 13 trends or keyssystem to predict the White House winner, he correctly predicted a Joe Biden victory.
Professor with perfect prediction record forecasts Donald Trump loss...
As yet, the professor who has accurately predicted the US presidential contest since 1982 – when he tipped Ronald Reagan to win in 1984 – has not received any congratulatory note from President Trump.
“No, and I don’t expect to,” ProfLichtman said. “Although I’m still waiting to see if I get a nice note from Joe Biden.”
Mr Lichtman’s model looks at several factors in predicting a winner, including party mandate, third-party challenge, social unrest, incumbency and charisma.
“I predicted a Biden win in the beginning of August of this year based upon my prediction system that has been right ever since I predicted Ronald Reagan’s election in April of 1982,” he said. “It’s a non-partisan system.”
What surprised Lichtman?
On election night outside the White House, a very partisan crowd of demonstrators clearly expected Mr Biden to be declared the winner in a clear landslide, but they would have to wait for hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots to be counted across the country.
Look, I'm 73 years old and I've been doing these predictions for 40 years, and I get butterflies in my stomach every four years
Mr Lichtman said although this election was unconventional because ofthe Covid-19 pandemic and several other factors, he did not flinch on election night when it came to his prediction of a Biden victory, while also acknowledging the mercurial nature of voters.
“Look, I’m 73 years old and I’ve been doing these predictions for 40 years, and I get butterflies in my stomach every four years,” he said.
“I repeatedly reaffirmed this prediction, including when the votes began to come in and it looked like Donald Trump might be re-elected, but I understood that no election was final until all the votes were counted, and in most states the mail-in ballots, which were overwhelmingly Democratic, would be counted last."
Sure enough, Mr Biden secured enough electoral votes to become president-elect, and also won the popular vote by approximately fivemillion ballots.
Mr Lichtman, however, did say he was surprised by several aspects of the election.
“First of all the magnitude of the turnout. This is a great tribute to the American people that they achieved a record turnout in percentages terms, the highest turnout since 1960,” he said. “That was surprising in the middle of the worst pandemic in 100 years.”
Mr Lichtman noted that both candidates managed to turn out significantly more voters than expected, and that ultimately, Mr Biden’s turnout operation surprised many.
“Not only is Biden on track for 306 electoral college votes, the same that Donald Trump got last time when he called it a landslide, but Biden is also on his way to a thumping popular vote victory of fivemillion popular votes or more,” he said.
ProfLichtman was also surprised by the disconnect between the White House race compared withtheelections for the Senate, House of Representatives and state legislatures.
“On the other hand, Republicans did extremely well in elections for US Congress and actually gained seats when all the pollsters said they would lose seats, and they did very well in state legislative elections.”
Trump’s reaction to defeat 'the worst moment in US presidential history'
ProfLichtman was rather taken aback by how Mr Trump handled theelectoral defeat.
Every indication, including statements from Republican election officials throughout the country, indicate that this was a remarkably smooth, full and fair election, and Donald Trump's challenges are entirely baseless, frivolous and dangerous
“I think what’s happened with Donald Trump since the election represents the worst moment in US presidential history,” Mr Lichtman said, comparing it with how previous incumbents have reacted.
“We have never had a losing president, or for that matter, any losing candidate, so openly and falsely and dangerously attack the foundations of our democracy. He’s baselessly accusing the other side of widespread fraud when in fact there was no such fraud.”
ProfLichtman also said that Mr Trump’s behaviour was being enabled by those who work directly for him, as well as those who serve in some of the highest positions of power for the Republican Party, such asSenate majority leader Mitch McConnell
“He’s the great enabler, saying ‘oh it’s not unusual to have all these challenges’, but it is unusual,” ProfLichtman said. “It’s never happened before; no losing candidate has ever initiated widespread challenges to an election like this, particularlywhen these challenges have absolutely no basis in fact.
“Every indication, including statements from Republican election officials throughout the country, indicate that this was a remarkably smooth, full and fair election, and Donald Trump’s challenges are entirely baseless, frivolous and dangerous,” he said.
What is Lichtman'spredictionfor2024?
ProfLichtman, who details his strategy for predicting the White House winner in his book, Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House, said although it is very early, it would strongly be to the Democratic party's advantage if Mr Biden ran for re-election in 2024.
“With the sitting president running again, you’re not going to have a big internal party fight, that’s a major key, and you’re unlikely to have a big third-party movement. It'salso worth noting that Biden will probablyachieve major policy changes from the Trump administration,” he said.
It doesn't look like the Republicans have anyone who fulfils the 'challenge charisma key', the once-in-a-generation inspirational candidate, like Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan
There are some, however, who see Mr Biden’s age, he is 77, as an obstacle to a second term.
Although Mr Biden has not indicated whether or not he plans to run for re-election, there is ample speculation that he might not.
If that is the case, ProfLichtman says it will be a tougher journey for Democrats.
“You lose the incumbency key right off the top, and you’re much more likely to have an internal party battle for who will be the nominee to take over fromJoe Biden,” he said.
Conversely, although he stopped just short of making a prediction, Mr Lichtman believes the 2024 presidential vote could be problematic for the Republican party.
“It doesn’t look like the Republicans have anyone who fulfils the ‘challenge charisma key’, the once-in-a-generation inspirational candidate, like Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan,” he said, pointing tothe potential for a power vacuum in the party.
How does Lichtman's13 keys model work?
The 13keys to the White Houseis an index of true or false responses to a set of questions, based on a simple pattern recognition algorithm.
"True" answers favour the re-election of the incumbent, while "false" answers favour the challenger.
When six or more of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.
Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections the incumbent party holds more seats in the USHouse of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two-thirds of the delegate votes.
- Incumbency: The sitting president is the party candidate.
- Third party: A third-party candidate wins at least 5 percent of the popular vote.
- Short-term economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has either not declared a recession, or has declared it over prior to the election.
- Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal or the first-term Reagan Revolution.
- Social unrest: There is no social unrest during the term that is comparable to the upheavals of the post-civil war Reconstruction or of the 1960s, and is sustained or raises deep concerns about the unraveling of society.
- Scandal: There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches upon the president
- Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbor or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America's national interests or threaten its standing in the world.
- Foreign or military success: There is a major success during the term comparable to the winning of World War II or the Camp David Accords that significantly advances America's national interests or its standing in the world.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower or is an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
- Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower and is not an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
-Source: Allan J. Lichtman, The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency
Mr Lichtman’s model looks at several factors in predicting a winner, including party mandate, third-party challenge, social unrest, incumbency and charisma.. “I predicted a Biden win in the beginning of August of this year based upon my prediction system that has been right ever since I predicted Ronald Reagan’s election in April of 1982,” he said.. Mr Lichtman noted that both candidates managed to turn out significantly more voters than expected, and that ultimately, Mr Biden’s turnout operation surprised many.. When six or more of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.. Incumbency: The sitting president is the party candidate.
The first six keys are what I have termed the political keys.. Obama is running so the Democrats get Key One and lead 1-0.. Key Four: Is There A Major Third Party Candidate ?. Another key for Obama and a 3-1 lead.. The next five keys are performance keys, looking at how the administration is doing.. But I could see people on both sides debating this key so we can call it 5 solid Obama, 1 leans Obama and 1 Solid Republican.. Key Ten: Short Term Economy Key. This key looks at the condition of the short term economy, asking if the economy is in recession on Election Day.. This key looks to the long term economy and asks if the per capita growth in the economy during the last term is equal to or greater than the prior two terms.. Just for the sake of fairness we’ll make his key solid and the GOP Key leaning. So that totals seven solid keys for Obama, five leaning keys for Obama and one against him
Many bettors do not see Biden running for reelection in 2024 because he will be 81.. With better polling numbers and some nostalgia, Trump has +500 odds of winning the presidency in 2024.. Trump’s odds improved with Biden’s decline, but 2024 is still very far, and the president has enough time to recover.. The narrative may have changed, but the fundamentals of the race for president are still the same.. The two Democratic politicians are at +250 for the presidential nomination of their party.
Monday November 2, 2020. A Jewish-American historian who correctly predicted the outcome of every US presidential election since 1984 has weighed in on the outcome of the 2020 election, predicting a Joe Biden victory.. Speaking to Fox News, American University's Prof. Allan Lichtman explained his prediction for a Biden victory based on his Keys to the White House model.. Under this theory, whichever side holds six or more Keys in their favor will win the election, while campaigning and comments made during the campaign are dismissed by the voters as campaign rhetoric and spin.It was utilizing this theory that Lichtman successfully predicted Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election, being one of the few forecasters to do so rather than favor Hillary Clinton.. This did not go unnoticed by Trump, who actually wrote Lichtman a thank-you note on a copy of a Washington Post article about the prediction.. "Now that Trump is the incumbent, he has seven Keys against him," Lichtman explained to Fox News, compared to the six Keys in his favor in 2016.. "My prediction is that Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since George H. W. Bush in 1992 to lose a reelection bid, and Joe Biden will become the next president of the United States.". Lichtman later took to social media to reaffirm his prediction, writing on Twitter that "My final prediction based on the Keys to the White House stands unchanged.. I am still predicting that [Donald Trump ] becomes the first sitting president to lose reelection since 1992 and that Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States.". "I almost never turn a key based on a treaty unless it is of great significance and broadly acclaimed in the United States," he explained, adding that he did not turn it for the 1994 peace treaty with Jordan either, despite Jordan being "a much more important nation than the ones involved in the current treaty.. "Lichtman added that this particular Key is usually always held against the incumbent, and in fact he has only ever given it to the incumbent once since he began predicting elections, which was " for the monumental arms control treaty between the US and the Soviet Union during the second term of President Ronald Reagan.". Despite its widespread popularity, the Keys to the White House model has not gained universal acceptance, and many have pointed out holes in its methodology, such as how it seems to primarily predict the winners of the popular vote rather than the electoral college.. Lichtman had predicted a Gore victory, but Bush was elected to the Oval Office despite Gore's win in the popular vote.. That being said, however, the opposite occurred in 2016, with Trump winning the Oval Office as per Lichtman's prediction despite Clinton's success in the popular vote.
Allan Lichtman Predicting The Next President 2020 Pdf - What Is Allan Lichtman S Prediction For The 2024 Us Presidential Election / Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race, dispelling much of the mystery behind electoral politics. ›
Professor Predicts Trump Impeachment 2016 Cnn Video from cdn.cnn.com 15.08.2020 · predicting the next president book description : 18.10.2021 · allan lichtman predicting the next president 2020 pdf : Here is a quick description and cover image of book predicting the next president: Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 … With the keys to the white house: The keys to the white house, 2020 by allan j.. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian allan j. Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 … Allan lichtman predicting the next president 2020 pdf : American university professor allan lichtman joins 'the story' to make his prediction on who will win the 2020 presidential election.. As many people in the country … Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 … 22.03.2016 · 22.03.2016 · in the updated 2020 edition of this classic text, allan j. Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race, dispelling much of the mystery behind electoral politics.. Allan Lichtman Predicting The Next President 2020 Pdf - What Is Allan Lichtman S Prediction For The 2024 Us Presidential Election / Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race, dispelling much of the mystery behind electoral politics. .. Source: The keys to the white house, 2020 by allan j. Allan lichtman predicting the next president 2020 pdf : Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 …
An interview with Allan Lichtman, the man who cracked the code to predicting US elections - Roar News ›
In November last year, Americans voted in yet another tense presidential race.. Instead, through his research, he came to the conclusion that voters make their choices based on how the incumbent party has governed the country.. His model, The Keys to the White House,Â predicts elections outcomes based on 13 true or false statements, or ‘keys’, of governance.. Keilis-Borok suggested applying methods used to predict earthquakes to US Presidential contests and their collaboration began.. The 13 keys include many aspects of governance including the performance of the economy, foreign policy successes and failures, major scandals, social unrest and the extent of policy changes.. In 2016 there were seven false keys , meaning that the incumbent party at the time, the Democratic Party, would lose the next election, resulting in Trump’s upset win.. You know Biden the moderate wins, right?. The only personal characteristicsÂ The KeysÂ take into account are the charisma of both the incumbent party and challenger candidate.. Lichtman also had something to say on the next election.. Lichtman clearly stated that he’s not making a prediction this early though.. We saw a lot of [House of Representatives] elections were decided by six votes in one case…and so I am very much worried about voterÂ suppression effecting all elections but presidential races.. However, one glaring example of voter suppression is the 2000 Election.. At the time, Lichtman’sÂ KeysÂ pointed in favour of Democratic candidate Al Gore defeating Republican George W. Bush.
Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country.” So polls are worthless?. Vladimir turned to me and said, we are going to collaborate.” By the way, Vladimir wasn’t a historian or a politician.. “We recast American presidential elections as stability, the party holding the White House keeps the White House.. Allan has used the keys to accurately predict every election.. What do Allan’s 13 keys predict for 2020?. In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 “keys” to winning the White House.. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.
His model, The Keys to the White House, predicts elections outcomes based on 13. had seven false keys resulting in their loss to Democrat Joe Biden in November that year.. The Keys judge election results based on governance.. It's worth noting that The Keys predicted the same 2020 Election outcome whether Joe Biden, a relative moderate, was the Democratic candidate or if a self-. However, Lichtman explains that Presidential elections are unique and that voter outreach, to. Presidential elections, another message of the keys, are unique.. One of the 13 keys is 'Major Policy Change', a particularly challenging key for Presidents to achieve.. Do you think that President Biden has made the necessary policy changes to benefit him and his party in the next election?. Lastly, you have said that foreign interference and voter suppression can disrupt an election result, meaning it could give a different outcome than the The Keys predict.. On the issue of voter suppression affecting Presidential elections, Lichtman's tone is similar. as well as the election of two Democratic senators.However, one glaring example of voter suppression is the 2000 Election.. At the time, Lichtman's Keys pointed in favor of Democratic candidate Al Gore defeating George W. Bush.