What is Allan Lichtman's prediction for the 2024 US presidential election? (2023)

American University’s distinguished professor of history, Alan Lichtman, shocked the world when he accurately predicted that Donald Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

During a Zoom interview with The National, ProfLichtman held up a note he received from Mr Trump in 2016 shortly after that prediction came to fruition.

“Professor, congrats, good call,” it reads, in large letters written in marker with Mr Trump’s signature.

This time around, using his 13 trends or keyssystem to predict the White House winner, he correctly predicted a Joe Biden victory.

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What is Allan Lichtman's prediction for the 2024 US presidential election? (1)

Professor with perfect prediction record forecasts Donald Trump loss...

(Video) Allan Lichtman is already predicting the 2024 presidential race

As yet, the professor who has accurately predicted the US presidential contest since 1982 – when he tipped Ronald Reagan to win in 1984 – has not received any congratulatory note from President Trump.

“No, and I don’t expect to,” ProfLichtman said. “Although I’m still waiting to see if I get a nice note from Joe Biden.”

Mr Lichtman’s model looks at several factors in predicting a winner, including party mandate, third-party challenge, social unrest, incumbency and charisma.

“I predicted a Biden win in the beginning of August of this year based upon my prediction system that has been right ever since I predicted Ronald Reagan’s election in April of 1982,” he said. “It’s a non-partisan system.”

What surprised Lichtman?

On election night outside the White House, a very partisan crowd of demonstrators clearly expected Mr Biden to be declared the winner in a clear landslide, but they would have to wait for hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots to be counted across the country.

Look, I'm 73 years old and I've been doing these predictions for 40 years, and I get butterflies in my stomach every four years

Mr Lichtman said although this election was unconventional because ofthe Covid-19 pandemic and several other factors, he did not flinch on election night when it came to his prediction of a Biden victory, while also acknowledging the mercurial nature of voters.

“Look, I’m 73 years old and I’ve been doing these predictions for 40 years, and I get butterflies in my stomach every four years,” he said.

(Video) Allan Lichtman predicts who will win the election | 22 Minutes

“I repeatedly reaffirmed this prediction, including when the votes began to come in and it looked like Donald Trump might be re-elected, but I understood that no election was final until all the votes were counted, and in most states the mail-in ballots, which were overwhelmingly Democratic, would be counted last."

Sure enough, Mr Biden secured enough electoral votes to become president-elect, and also won the popular vote by approximately fivemillion ballots.

Mr Lichtman, however, did say he was surprised by several aspects of the election.

“First of all the magnitude of the turnout. This is a great tribute to the American people that they achieved a record turnout in percentages terms, the highest turnout since 1960,” he said. “That was surprising in the middle of the worst pandemic in 100 years.”

Mr Lichtman noted that both candidates managed to turn out significantly more voters than expected, and that ultimately, Mr Biden’s turnout operation surprised many.

“Not only is Biden on track for 306 electoral college votes, the same that Donald Trump got last time when he called it a landslide, but Biden is also on his way to a thumping popular vote victory of fivemillion popular votes or more,” he said.

ProfLichtman was also surprised by the disconnect between the White House race compared withtheelections for the Senate, House of Representatives and state legislatures.

“On the other hand, Republicans did extremely well in elections for US Congress and actually gained seats when all the pollsters said they would lose seats, and they did very well in state legislative elections.”

Trump’s reaction to defeat 'the worst moment in US presidential history'

ProfLichtman was rather taken aback by how Mr Trump handled theelectoral defeat.

Every indication, including statements from Republican election officials throughout the country, indicate that this was a remarkably smooth, full and fair election, and Donald Trump's challenges are entirely baseless, frivolous and dangerous

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“I think what’s happened with Donald Trump since the election represents the worst moment in US presidential history,” Mr Lichtman said, comparing it with how previous incumbents have reacted.

“We have never had a losing president, or for that matter, any losing candidate, so openly and falsely and dangerously attack the foundations of our democracy. He’s baselessly accusing the other side of widespread fraud when in fact there was no such fraud.”

ProfLichtman also said that Mr Trump’s behaviour was being enabled by those who work directly for him, as well as those who serve in some of the highest positions of power for the Republican Party, such asSenate majority leader Mitch McConnell

“He’s the great enabler, saying ‘oh it’s not unusual to have all these challenges’, but it is unusual,” ProfLichtman said. “It’s never happened before; no losing candidate has ever initiated widespread challenges to an election like this, particularlywhen these challenges have absolutely no basis in fact.

“Every indication, including statements from Republican election officials throughout the country, indicate that this was a remarkably smooth, full and fair election, and Donald Trump’s challenges are entirely baseless, frivolous and dangerous,” he said.

What is Lichtman'spredictionfor2024?

ProfLichtman, who details his strategy for predicting the White House winner in his book, Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House, said although it is very early, it would strongly be to the Democratic party's advantage if Mr Biden ran for re-election in 2024.

“With the sitting president running again, you’re not going to have a big internal party fight, that’s a major key, and you’re unlikely to have a big third-party movement. It'salso worth noting that Biden will probablyachieve major policy changes from the Trump administration,” he said.

It doesn't look like the Republicans have anyone who fulfils the 'challenge charisma key', the once-in-a-generation inspirational candidate, like Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan

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There are some, however, who see Mr Biden’s age, he is 77, as an obstacle to a second term.

Although Mr Biden has not indicated whether or not he plans to run for re-election, there is ample speculation that he might not.

If that is the case, ProfLichtman says it will be a tougher journey for Democrats.

“You lose the incumbency key right off the top, and you’re much more likely to have an internal party battle for who will be the nominee to take over fromJoe Biden,” he said.

Conversely, although he stopped just short of making a prediction, Mr Lichtman believes the 2024 presidential vote could be problematic for the Republican party.

“It doesn’t look like the Republicans have anyone who fulfils the ‘challenge charisma key’, the once-in-a-generation inspirational candidate, like Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan,” he said, pointing tothe potential for a power vacuum in the party.

How does Lichtman's13 keys model work?

The 13keys to the White Houseis an index of true or false responses to a set of questions, based on a simple pattern recognition algorithm.

"True" answers favour the re-election of the incumbent, while "false" answers favour the challenger.

(Video) Howard Stern Just Made A Bold Prediction About Trump's 2024 Run

When six or more of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.

Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House:

  1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections the incumbent party holds more seats in the USHouse of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
  2. Contest: The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two-thirds of the delegate votes.
  3. Incumbency: The sitting president is the party candidate.
  4. Third party: A third-party candidate wins at least 5 percent of the popular vote.
  5. Short-term economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has either not declared a recession, or has declared it over prior to the election.
  6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal or the first-term Reagan Revolution.
  8. Social unrest: There is no social unrest during the term that is comparable to the upheavals of the post-civil war Reconstruction or of the 1960s, and is sustained or raises deep concerns about the unraveling of society.
  9. Scandal: There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches upon the president
  10. Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbor or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America's national interests or threaten its standing in the world.
  11. Foreign or military success: There is a major success during the term comparable to the winning of World War II or the Camp David Accords that significantly advances America's national interests or its standing in the world.
  12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower or is an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
  13. Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower and is not an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.

-Source: Allan J. Lichtman, The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency

FAQs

Who was elected president of the United States in2020? ›

The 2020 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Democratic presidential nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, defeated incumbent Republican President Donald Trump in the presidential election.

Who will be India's next president 2022? ›

The election took place on 18 July 2022 with a turnout of 99.12%. BJP candidate Droupadi Murmu won the election, defeating Yashwant Sinha, the candidate of the opposition, by a margin of 296,626 votes. That led Murmu to be the 15th President of India, the first tribal and second woman to do so.

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What is the deadline to run for President 2024? ›

Candidates must file a declaration of write-in candidacy by 8:00 pm on Election Day. Do not submit before January of 2024. For more information on the write-in process please visit our write-in candidacy page.

Who is the 1st US President? ›

On April 30, 1789, George Washington, standing on the balcony of Federal Hall on Wall Street in New York, took his oath of office as the first President of the United States.

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Who Cannot vote in the election of the President of India? ›

Only elected members of both Houses of Parliament and of the State Legislative Assemblies are members of the Electoral College for Presidential Election. Therefore, nominated members cannot vote in this election. [see Article 54 of the Constitution.] Q.

Who votes for President? ›

The President of India is elected by the Members of an Electoral College consisting of (a) the elected members of both Houses of Parliament and (b) the elected members of the Legislative Assemblies of the States [including National Capital Territory of Delhi and the Union Territory of Puducherry vide the Constitution ( ...

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Forbes estimates it at $3 billion as of February 17, 2022, with Trump chronically making much higher claims. Trump inherited wealth from his father, and he has also made money from fundraising, real estate ventures, hotels, casinos, golf courses, and Trump-branded products including neckties and steaks.

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U.S. Constitutional Requirements for Presidential Candidates

Be a natural-born citizen of the United States. Be at least 35 years old. Have been a resident of the United States for 14 years.

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In the United States, the president of the United States is elected indirectly through the United States Electoral College to a four-year term, with a term limit of two terms (totaling eight years) or a maximum of ten years if the president acted as president for two years or less in a term where another was elected as ...

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For the November 3, 2020 election, the filing deadline is no later than 12:00 noon, prevailing time, on Monday, September 14, 2020. A Certificate may not be filed prior to August 20, 2020, the applicable qualifying deadline for candidates to have their names placed on the November ballot.

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Who are the 4 presidents assassinated? ›

Four sitting presidents have been killed: Abraham Lincoln (1865, by John Wilkes Booth), James A. Garfield (1881, by Charles J. Guiteau), William McKinley (1901, by Leon Czolgosz), and John F. Kennedy (1963, by Lee Harvey Oswald).

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List
POTUS No.Name
1Martha Washington June 2, 1731 – May 22, 1802 (aged 70)
2Abigail Adams November 22, 1744 – October 28, 1818 (aged 73)
3Martha Jefferson September 27, 1772 – October 10, 1836 (aged 64)
4Dolley Madison May 20, 1768 – July 12, 1849 (aged 81)
34 more rows

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Sirimavo Bandaranaike was elected as the world's first female Prime Minister on 21 July 1960.

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55. Manner of election of President. —(1) As far as practicable, there shall be uniformity in the scale of representation of the different States at the election of the President.

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Article 74 of the Constitution of the Republic of India provides for a Council of Ministers which shall aid the President in the exercise of the President's functions.

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...
2019.
NameBill Gates
Net worth (USD)$96.5 billion
Age63
NationalityUnited States
Source(s) of wealthMicrosoft
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Most affluent women worldwide 2022, by net worth

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Elon Musk's net worth

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Lincoln won the Electoral College with less than 40 percent of the popular vote nationwide by carrying states above the Mason–Dixon line and north of the Ohio River, plus the states of California and Oregon in the Far West.

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A total of 538 electors form the Electoral College. Each elector casts one vote following the general election. The candidate who gets 270 votes or more wins. The newly elected President and Vice President are then inaugurated on January 20th.

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How did Abraham Lincoln cause the Civil War? ›

It was the economy of slavery and the control of the system of slavery that was a major controversy in this dispute. The election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860 was a reflection that the Southern states have lost their influence and power, and it was the first in the series of events that led to the Civil War.

How can the president be removed from office? ›

The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.

What was the 12th Amendment? ›

The Twelfth Amendment requires a person to receive a majority of the electoral votes for vice president for that person to be elected vice president by the Electoral College. If no candidate for vice president has a majority of the total votes, the Senate, with each senator having one vote, chooses the vice president.

Why are there 538 electoral votes? ›

Electoral votes are allocated among the States based on the Census. Every State is allocated a number of votes equal to the number of senators and representatives in its U.S. Congressional delegation—two votes for its senators in the U.S. Senate plus a number of votes equal to the number of its Congressional districts.

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What Is the Highest Paying Job in the World? The highest-paying job in the world, in a traditional sense, holds the number one spot in this article: anesthesiologist.

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Highest Paying Occupations
OCCUPATION2021 MEDIAN PAY
General internal medicine physiciansThis wage is equal to or greater than $208,000 per year
Family medicine physiciansThis wage is equal to or greater than $208,000 per year
Emergency medicine physiciansThis wage is equal to or greater than $208,000 per year
17 more rows

Can the vice president be fired? ›

The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.

Who is third in line for the presidency? ›

Current order of succession
No.OfficeParty
1Vice PresidentDemocratic
2Speaker of the House of RepresentativesDemocratic
3President pro tempore of the SenateDemocratic
4Secretary of StateDemocratic
14 more rows

Can you be president if you are born in another country? ›

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident ...

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